A trend is a general direction that something takes over time, often expressed as an upward or downward curve. It can be spotted by observing a pattern in data, whether that is an increase or decrease in sales or in the number of people looking for a certain type of item online. Trend analysis can be used to help predict what is likely to happen in the future, which can then inform business decisions.
A key distinction between trends and fads is longevity. Fads are generally quick and abrupt spikes in popularity that don’t last very long. A fidget spinner, for example, was a huge hit at some point but is now rarely heard of. Trends, on the other hand, tend to have a much longer lifespan. BNPL (buy now pay later), for example, was just another feature on Amazon until it was adopted by other major retailers, most recently Apple.
Trends can have a wide range of influences and it is important for a product manager to be aware of what is happening around them. A good way to do this is to track competitor data, such as pricing, reviews and ratings. It’s also possible to gather qualitative data like interviews with customers to see what they are thinking about a particular product or service.
It is a good idea to use both quantitative and qualitative methods when tracking and analyzing trends. Quantitative data can be analyzed using models like a time series model or an econometric one. These can be helpful in assessing how the trend will change over time, but they can’t be relied on for all situations. Judgmental models, which are based on a person’s judgment, can also be useful for assessing what is likely to happen in the future.
Observing a trend is important for many businesses, especially those that deal in fast-changing consumer goods or technology. Having a clear understanding of what is driving consumer demand and what the product or service will be capable of will help a company decide how to capitalize on it. It can be tempting to jump on the bandwagon, but it’s important to consider what is actually sustainable and if a new product will have enough staying power.
Many trends are simply the logical progression of existing ones. For example, electronic tax filing has a lot in common with spreadsheet programs and paperless documentation. If a product is developed in line with these existing trends, it will have a higher chance of success.
Trends can also be influenced by large events, for example when the film Lord of the Rings was released, designers quickly started producing clothes that mimicked the costumes worn in the movie. This is why it is important to stay current with popular culture and social media. This can influence the colours, themes and shapes that designers will include in their collections next season. This will then be reflected in the shopping choices of consumers.
